标题: Machine learning potentials for global multi-timescale diffuse irradiance estimation: Synthesizing ground observations, time-series, and environmental features

作者: Wang, NN (Wang, Nannan); Yue, ZJ (Yue, Zijian); Liu, YL (Liu, Yaolin); Liu, YF (Liu, Yanfang)

来源出版物: ENERGY  卷: 306  文献号: 132535  DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.132535  Published Date: 2024 OCT 15  

摘要: Separating diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) from ground-based global horizontal irradiance observations is critical owing to lack of direct DHI observations. Existing models are often site-specific and time-bound, thereby limiting their universal applicability. To address this, this study thoroughly explores machine learning (ML) for constructing global separation models. We develop 36 models using three ML algorithms-light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), generalized additive model (GAM), and geographically weighted artificial neural network (GWANN)-alongside three data splitting strategies for minutely, 10-minutely, hourly, and daily timescales. LightGBM and GAM outperform GWANN in accuracy, with LightGBM excelling in interpretability, efficiency, and handling missing values, while GWANN exhibits superior stability. Compared with completely random splitting, model accuracy decreases by 2.26 % and 2.16 % for station- and date-based splitting, respectively. Prediction accuracy varies across timescales, with minutely models typically considered the best. Key predictors are Kt, solar zenith angle, and altitude, complemented by the significant influence of time-series Kt, aerosol, and cloud features. The influence of various factors on model accuracy differs and is scale-dependent. Among them, time-series Ktvariability factors notably enhance ML-based predictions, especially at minutely scales. The LightGBM model outperforms classic models in overall and site-specific accuracy and adaptability, but its computational efficiency declines, especially with time-series variability factors. The findings highlight that ML-based separation models necessitate careful selection of algorithm, data splitting strategy, and input variables, fully considering study region, data situation, and temporal and spatial scales. This research offers a potential solution for constructing global separation models and insights for model improvement.

作者关键词: Global horizontal irradiance; Diffuse horizontal irradiance; Clearness index; Diffuse fraction; Separation model; Machine learning

地址: [Wang, Nannan; Liu, Yaolin; Liu, Yanfang] Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, 129 Luoyu Rd, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

[Yue, Zijian] Chinese Acad Sci, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.

[Yue, Zijian] Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, ,Yangling, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.

[Yue, Zijian] Chinese Acad Sci, Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China.

[Liu, Yaolin] Duke Kunshan Univ, 8 Duke Ave, Kunshan 215316, Jiangsu, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Liu, YL (通讯作者)，Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, 129 Luoyu Rd, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

电子邮件地址: yaolin610@yeah.net

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