标题: Scenario simulation of carbon balance in carbon peak pilot cities under the background of the "dual carbon" goals

作者: Zhang, JT (Zhang, Jinting); Yang, K (Yang, Kui); Wu, JD (Wu, Jingdong); Duan, Y (Duan, Ying); Ma, YN (Ma, Yanni); Ren, JZ (Ren, Jingzhi); Yang, ZN (Yang, Zenan)

来源出版物: SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND SOCIETY 卷: 116 文献号: 105910 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105910 Early Access Date: OCT 2024 Published Date: 2024 DEC 1

摘要: Under the "dual carbon" goals, targeting issues such as the difficulty in changing the high-carbon economic development model in pilot cities and the inability of previous prediction models to meet current needs, this paper provides an in-depth analysis of carbon stocks and emissions in a peak pilot City spanning from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing the PLUS model, this study forecasts land use/cover data under diverse future scenarios, encompassing natural development (ND) as well as ecological protection (EP). Moreover, the Bi-LSTM deep learning model is developed using six influencing factors to simulate carbon emissions. The research also examined the spatiotemporal changes in carbon budget and balance. The findings of the study reveal several significant conclusions:(1) The PLUS model demonstrated high predictive accuracy in forecasting future land-use types, achieving an average overall accuracy exceeding 0.89 and a Kappa value of 0.8568; The Bi-LSTM model achieved the highest accuracy among all competing models, with an R 2 score reaching 0.864. (2) Under the EP scenario from 2020 to 2030, the rate of decline in carbon storage has slowed down (6.44 x 106 t of carbon storage have been avoided from disappearing), and land use efficiency has significantly improved. Due to the protection of ecological land, a certain carbon sink effect has been generated, resulting in lower regional carbon emissions compared to the ND scenario, emphasizing the importance and necessity of setting ecological red lines for carbon stock optimization. (3) Carbon payment areas are primarily concentrated in urban centers, and over time, these areas and carbon compensation zones each account half of the total area. (4) Under different scenarios, the carbon balance of built land has been partially mitigated, and the overall trend is developing favorably.

作者关键词: Plus model; Invest model; Carbon budgeting; Carbon offsetting; Bi-LSTM

地址: [Zhang, Jinting; Yang, Kui; Ma, Yanni] Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

[Wu, Jingdong; Yang, Zenan] Henan Polytech Univ, Sch Surveying & Land Informat Engn, Jiaozuo 454003, Peoples R China.

[Duan, Ying] China Univ Geosci, Sch Geog & Informat Engn, Wuhan 430078, Peoples R China.

[Ren, Jingzhi] China Univ Min & Technol, Coll Geosci & Surveying Engn, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China.

通讯作者地址: Yang, K (通讯作者)，Wuhan Univ, Sch Resource & Environm Sci, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.

电子邮件地址: yangkui@whu.edu.cn

影响因子：10.5